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News from Italy - migrants, Cheney, troops, lies and liars. Sep 06 08 Lisbon Referendum results: early tallies show victory for No campaigns international |
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 Friday June 13, 2008 13:36 by paul o toole pauljotoole at eircom dot net
 Is Lisbon -II on the cards?
First tally...60%-NO 40%YES. Related Links: Indymedia Coverage of the Campaign
Newstalk-106 just said that the first tallys are in from Dublin Castle. So far it stands at 60 % against the Treaty and 40% for.
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PaddyPower.com has stopped taking bets on the outcome. (He did that last year too after prices on various FF combinations were falling all day.) Last available odds were 4/11 on a Yes vote.
Meanwhile, over on Betfair, there are only small amounts of money up for staking, but the prices are 3/1 No and 1/4 Yes.
It's all over bar the shouting. Bookies don't get these things wrong.
Not so fast, there. Just checked betfair now and YES has drifted from 1/4 to 1/3 to 4/6 and now 8/11! NO is at 6/5 from 5/2!
Looks like those early tallies are saying NO, NO, NO!
From RTE breaking news:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0613/eulisbon.html
"Working class areas of the capital are reported to be voting two to one against Lisbon, while the vote is more evenly split in middle class districts.
In Donegal North East, with 10% of boxes opened, not one has a Yes majority, while in Tipperary North, political sources are predicting that the result will be very close, and in Wicklow."
Bookies get it wrong roughly 50% of the time.
They have margins (and Tax Breaks) and plentiful supply of punters to willing to part with their hard earned money and gamble against each other on all manner of beast which makes it impossible for them to loose money....is that what you meant.
Like lotteries, gambling, horse and dog betting it is just a distraction from real life. A possible dream landing on your lap for a euro or two. No different than big brother, star search, pop idol.....
Remember ..if your not in ...you cant loose
Looks like this rejection is not even going to be that narrow - ah ya can almost hear the tears in Pat Kenny's voice!
kp
A few suburbs showing about 55% yes, and city centre, and remaining suburbs about 55% no, - apart from Southill which is showing 86% NO.
Cheer up comrades. No is running away with it.
Kenny just said that after the break in his show they may be moving into a post-mortem phase! All commentators conceded that it was unlikely the early trends would be bucked. The No victory is likely to be a bit tighter than the initial 60/40 against tallies, and despite Cowen's overwhelming Yes victory in Offaly (my constituency, that is, if I wasn't in Poland and was actually allowed to vote) it looks like he's going to have a rough ride in Brussels - maybe he will take up Ganley's ticket afterall? Or else, his Green partners will convince him to travel by bus or even hitch!
Enda Kenny has already stated that Mayo has been 'lost' to the 'No' vote.
With such a week of great victories for us, any chance someone will manage to do a citizen's arrest on Bush.
Yea - I think we have to acknowledge that the no vote was an amalgam of views - many in direct contradiction!
BUT whats making me personally happy is that its a direct puck in the eye for the establishment both here and in Europe - slows them makes them a little more cautious with what they might attempt in terms of further privitization/militarization
kp
Apparently poor old Paddy Power had already started to pay out on YES votes and may now have to pay on NO as well - not a great outcome for them!!
kp
Afraid to celebrate yet but if this stays the way its looking I'll be over to Robert Reades pub on Store St, haunt of several Indo juorno's, for a bit of triumphalism.
So now they are fighting about where the No vote came from, the Irish Times polled people who intended to vote no as to why last week, note that corporate tax (the Libertas issue) was not significant at 5%
Why people intended to vote No
Dun Laoghaire and South Dublin 60% yes.
Cork, surprisingly, voting No. North Central to the tune of 65%, South Central to the tune of 55%.
The Kenny show is music to one's ears, that is, if you can bear listen to Pat himself. The Yessies have their knickers in a twist and Kenny is his usual biased self, doing everything he can to shut up Patricia McKenna and other panelists. So it looks like Dublin south-east and Offaly are 2 of the few that will probably carry a Yes majority.
Is Paddy Power taking bets on when Lisbon II will be?
Its interesting that Kenny and the "expert" suburbanite yesser panel keep referring to abortion, euthanasia etc
-yet neither figures in the poll above - the 17% not liking been told what to do is interesting and encouraging.
Definitely various protests in there - for example apparently huge no vote down Wexford coast - must be fishermen?!
Its great that its by boxes rather than E voting always more fun...
...to count your little 3 millions of voices :-) , but please, find us a "no" against Sarko mafia and co !
This guys has employed desinformation and other very curious methods to steal hour right to vote. Quasi all media directors are his big friends.
Please, a little "no" from you, and I will make me drunk with my favory beer (Guinness), with love in heart for my European brothers. :-) [no need Traity !] I have stopped to drink alccol, theses last monthes, but her taste is coming like taste of victory against economic mafia.
No to OMC, no to Monsanto. No to one power in top of world ! No to lobbies decisions that make us going back fare in time !
See you later... :-)
Fingers crossed!
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/0613/bre...1.htm
The guy from France is right!
If NO is over 50%, I' ll get drunk drinking Guiness tonight, too!
Good luck!
NO 53.3 YES 46.7
from RTE again
http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0613/eulisbon.html
The first official result in the Lisbon Referendum is in, and it confirms the strength of the No vote.
Waterford voted by 54-46 to reject the Treaty - a higher No vote than was recorded in the first Nice Referendum.
Sligo North Lietrim 56.9: 43.1
(and on a 51% voter turn out - higher than Nice 1 AND 2)
Looks like overall nationally probably be about 54:46 to "No"
I beg to differ, I see no surprise in the No vote by Cork, nor nationally.
From my Rebel standpoint, and from all the letterboxes and doorsteps I and my comrades visited over the past month, there was no surprise at all in this result, only in the scale and the broad spread of where the No vote predominated. In everything we did during the campaign there was always the sense that we were getting across a message in voting No to Lisbon that people were prepared to entertain and in many cases even wanted to hear. Normally I don't enjoy Prat Kenny's menagerie of establishment popinjays that he has on of a Friday, but today I cant help enjoying the delicious spectacle unfolding before our eyes, as the masks slip off the faces of our rulers in their petulant rage at an electorate that for once was not duped by them. The voice of the people as expressed in a referendum is now an obstacle to be overcome, says Fine Gael's Lucinda Creighton. Our politicians, the self-styled priesthood of 'democracy' worship only themselves and we will watch them execrate and deliberately misinterpret this result: the people have spoken and the establishment won't wear it.
Now, that's Ireland's (and Europe's) rulers for you!
Sorry I was only half listening to the radio - I tink Justin has the correct stats there on Sligo!!
Might this be the "all-merciful" kick up the arse that so many politicians (here, there, and everywhere) have so badly needed for so long?
If so, maybe the completion of the "unfinished work" has already now begun right here in Ireland?
i.e. "... government of the people, by the people, for the people ..."
Rte tv had on minister martin and Mary lou mc donald talking about the No victory and Irish nutrality.
Both of there views were limp efforts as a discussion about nutrality.
These two are un qualified to talk of nutrality , just as are Ganley and Kenny who are the four picked for QnA on Monday...very clever.
They talk of nutrality whilst...
Ganley..along with his friends the Macelvaddy brothers re=fuell US warplanes in Shannon and make millions on Genocide.
Mary Lou...along with the Unionists, invites weapons manufacturers to the North as part of the 'Peace dividend' in peaceful times
Michael Martin...his party allow Shannon to be used to kill 1.2 million Iraqi and Afghani civilians. Turn 500,000 women into widows and 5,000,000 children into orphans.
Kenny... who cares what comes out of his mouth.
The hypocryts give us their post mortem as they gave their pre mortem......Lets hear someone with an original un biased view for once from RTE.....its on heads to do so.
I just want to thank the Irish in the name of other Europeans, who didn't get the chance to vote on this treaty.
You have voted in our name, too.
In Hungary, the parliament wanted to break the record of ass-licking/kissing to EU by ratifing it 2 days after it was signed in Brussels.
Thank you.
Can we now look forward to the French Government releasing their suppressed white paper on defence. What is in the French paper that the Government Elite of the European Union thought would influence us to vote NO to Lisbon? Was our neutrality really protected in the Lisbon Treaty? Does the secret document really show the actual mechanism for raising defence spending, under Article 42.3 of the vanquished Treaty, to 6% of our GDP - approximately 10 billion euros?
The Postal Vote/ Army is revealing an overwhelming YES vote. Won't the little boys and girls of our magnificent Shannon Airport defenders and their US and British educated officers bemoan the fact they now won't have all that lovely money to buy more toys and with which to play more stupid killing games with their NATO pals in Afghanistan.
It's a no according to them, 54.6% No to 45.4% Yes on average.
Wexford No 60-40%
Kildare North & south yes, votes about 53-47%
Louth No 58-42%
and so on.
They cannot challenge each other because they all support the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan while pretending to uphold our constitutional Nutrality
They all support each other in circumventing Nutrality.
"It seems certain that Irish voters have rejected the Lisbon Treaty."
RTE update (13:36 hours) at: http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0613/eulisbon.html
To French NO-ist I say: a votre sante mon ami. Vous et vos amis serez tous bienvenue en Irland cet ete. Ce soir je vais boir vin blanc ordinaire. Prost, as they say in Germany! Slainte a chairde.
I don't think so. We can't sit on our collective asses and wait for the next attempt to trick us into a bad deal. Plenty of people are active on issues of social justice, anti-corruption and peace, so let's encourage more people to join in that struggle, rather than let the dark side regroup while the public slips back into consumerism (exactly where the politicians want them to remain)..
Hey people in Ireland, thanx for the NO! Thanx a lot. I don t believe that the european powers will respect the results in the way they should but for all the people of the civil society this is a huge sign! Yessa , go people of Ireland, go people of Europe!
who got out there and engaged with the public, with limited time and funds, and broke the cosy consensus about the Treaty.
And thanks to all the voters who listened, and decided not to bullied or tricked by a shower of liars.
Well done.
A Campaign of civil disobience if they steal the peoples victory by forcing through a second referendum to overturn the result. We will have to hit the streets and block off the streets in that case. Dont expect the 'opposition' parties like labour to stand up for our rights and I dont know if Libertas and the small left parties would have the bottle for an Campaign of civil disobience and effective protests (not the usual pathetic marches on O' Connell St which everyone ignores). If they dont then the leadership on this issue will have to come from the people themselves.
They are saying (over and over) that the no vote was the result of unfounded fears of 'conscription to a eu army' generated by No campaigners. Not justified fears of govt attitudes to neutrality. Might they use that meme to justify a re-run?
I reckon if, and it's a big if, it is run again the most effective form of civil disobedience would be an absolute and total and publicised boycott of the poll.
The Governments of Europe might freak out now but the people of Europe will thank the people of Ireland for swimming against the tide.
As a Tara Campaigner I voted No because of the EU's cavalier attitude to the destruction of our heritage and how ineffective the ECJ and the commissioner were when they could have taken the Government to court.
The unbelievable arrogance and deafness of the Government during the campaign did them no favours either - sending D. Roche, arch-wrecker of our heritage, out to tell us to vote yes was a fatal mistake. Cowen's own arrogance did not help either.
Welcome to Lu-La Land!
("bisous" is "kisses" for family word in french)
To night, I will make me drunked with my favorite beer (Guinness), with love in heart for my European brothers. :-) [no need Treaty !] For my brothers in World they want to be free from economic well thinking dictature.
I have stopped drinking alcool, theses last monthes, but its taste is coming like taste of victory against economic mafia.
No to OMC, no to Monsanto. No to one power in top of world ! No to lobbies decisions that make us going back fare in time ! At least, in Middle Ages !
They told they have no b plan ("plan b" ). It is maybe a good occasion to think and make an alternative.
To begin by the beginning. Make an Commun Philosophy UE.
Tell what points of human values we want to be respected.
Because, there is a big conflict between Human Rights and Economics ones.
What one side wins, the other losts it. (Ce que l'un gagne, l'autre le perd - vases communicants)
(Evolution on ireland.com, is not so wonderful, now, but the No resists).
See you later... :-)
To Tommy : Tu speakes va-hachement bien le french, toi ! J'ai vu des photos ! Ca a l'air beau l'Irlande. Mais je n'ai pas les moyens, pour l'instant, de m'y rendre.
Un forum français où des intervenants remercient les Irlandais :
http://www.marianne2.fr/Les-Irlandais-ont-rejete-le-tra...ments
Quel que soit votre vote, le texte s'appliquerait quand même ? ??? Il va falloir être vilgilant.
A +. Au fait, je dois aller acheter la bière.
To the Greek beer drinker
Sto Ellinas paidi : kai ligo ellenisa eimai ! :-)
apo pou eisai ;
I think we'll drink Guinness (or Murphy's) instead of wine tonight here in my tiny "Gallic village" at the French countryside. Félicitations ! Éirinn Go Brách !
Its not often we get to say it. But today is one of those times.
I'm Irish and I'm Proud !!!
Congtaulations so us.
Voting 'No' because you don't understand what it's about is not only monumentally stupid but an irrespnsible use of your vote.
As would voting 'Yes' be under the same circumstances.
I don't think the 'Yes' vote benefitted from it though.
If you are abroad, like I am, and following the news of Lisbon's rejection, then sit back and enjoy it's official burial at about 3pm Irish time (that's any minute now). Here is the link:
http://www.rte.ie/live/
The Polish Prime Minister has stated that Ireland's rejection does not disqualify the Treaty. He stated earlier that the EU will find ways to revitalise it.
Some Polish coverage of the rejection (1st one in English):
http://www.polskieradio.pl/thenews/foreign-affairs/?id=...84708
http://www.dziennik.pl/swiat/article190926/Irlandia_mow....html
http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/Wiadomosci/1,80269,5309477,....html
From an Irishman abroad I would just like to say I am SO FECKIN HAPPY yez have voted NO to this disgrace of a treaty. Now, THAT's democracy... are ye listening politicians??!!
This is a great day for Ireland and the other 99% of our brothers and sisters in Europe who were denied the right to vote on this failed piece of legislature
Great week - Raytheon 9 acquitted, Eu Treaty shot down by 10 o clock this morning...one hour into the count ...
...and the US are under pressure to get out of Iraq because there mandate is running out ( not that they ever had one in the first place)
but they are trying to circumvent this as it is being declared by the Iraqi 'government ' to be un-constitutional.
Im off to france to night to celebrate with our comrades over there and ill write it up if there is anything to report.......
Great work on the no vote. I wouldnt sow any illusions that this is democracy though, the parameters of debate are still defined by bourgeois politics. Europe or Ireland, regulation or free trade, sovereignty or federation. While you celebrate remember that so are Libertas and Coir, we have a lot of organising to do.
Tune into RTE radio now to listen to the typical arrogant rage from the usual cozy elite panel our state broadcaster is so fond of
No no no no, no no THERE'S NO LISBON!
Not since the Dark Ages has the Republic of Ireland ever performed so well.
All we need to do now, is to "keep our eye on the ball" at all times -- to make certain sure that the "Bully Boys/Girls & Liars of The World" never come this close to absolute victory again.
Congrats to everyone who put in the work on the ground for the No, especially to the guys who spent Monday Tuesday and Wednesday on O'Connell Street!
You have to laugh listening to RTE or Newstalk giving out about our "spurious arguments" and talk of "conscription" and how embarassed Cowen will be in Europe next week. Even after they've lost they won't deal with the real issues.
They're on the backfoot now, keep up the pressure for demilitarization and democracy!
Happy days!!! The no vote (most likely) won!! Lets hope it doesn't end here. Lets get off our arse's demand a more equal society, a fairer health system, more accountable Government, better use of our countries resources, taxes etc... People have the power now let us use it. We might be a small country, a small population and a small island but unlike our political electorate who would "roll over" to the bigger nations, we the people showed that we matter, we have being heard and today we made them remember that although Government (supposedly) is for the people by the people, it does not run the people....
Anyways Party anyone?? :-)
Merci to French NO-iste for that link to Marianne. (J'ai lu cette revue quelquefois: on peut l'acheter en Easons bookshop en O'Connell Street). Here's just one blog response from a french reader of Marianne to the news of the No vote:
"31. Posté par Anne le 13/06/2008 16:07
Bravo au Irlandais qui vengent les français du déni de démocratie commis par N. Sarkozy ( aidé de quasiment toute la classe politqiue française...) quand il a fait adopter par voie parlementaire le traité repoussé par voie référendaire !
Il est peut-être temps que les médias permettent que le réel débat éclose: les peuples sont-ils d'accord pour renoncer à leur souveraineté nationale au profit d'une instance supra-nationale qui prend ses décisions sur le mode diplomatique? La construction européenne peut-elle être autre que ce qu'elle est, c'est-à-dire une construction institutionnelle qui met en oeuvre le déploiement du libéralisme?
Si l'Euope eput être autre, si elle peut être sociale, posons les conditions sur la table pour rester en son sein ! Notre Europe sera sociale ou ne sera pas !
Un mouvement propose d'agir en ce sens. C'est là : [http://www.m-pep.org/spip.php?article601
http://www.m-pep.org "
Get out yer dictionnaires if you want to read that. Basically Anne says Bravo to the Irish who avenged the denial of democracy by Sarkozy to the French voters. She hopes for a real media debate on the issue of national sovereignty around Europe and its possible takeover by a supernational procedure that would take decisions in a diplomatic manner (?) She then supplies a link to a movement that campaigns for a social Europe.
The Marianne blog carries lots of other thank-you greetings.
Here's what former Irish Times journalist Conor O'Clery says in an article in the Washington Post:
"Opponents of the treaty in Europe cheered on the Irish ‘No” campaign, and British newspapers circulating in Ireland, like the Rupert Murdoch-owned Times, campaigned against ratification, leading to accusations from the “Yes” campaign that Britain's Eurosceptics were waging a proxy war in Ireland.
For the anti-EU Europeans, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, never has so much been done, by so few, for so many, as the Irish have scuppered a treaty which would likely have been rejected by the electorates of several other member countries. "
See the full article here- http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/needtokno....html
We should nail a corny myth about Murdoch influence on Irish politics, though I hold no truck with the debilitating cultural influence of British tabloids in Ireland.
Barrosa has spoken that since 18 nations have already ratified the Treaty in their national parliaments or by referendum that the remaining 18 will also do so.
The Treaty of course cannot be fully ratified without the consent of the Irish people so obviously the EU will encourage a re-run of the referendum just as the Nice Treaty was accepted after a second ballot.
The blame game has started and the YES camp have identified several factors
1) The Fianna Fail leadership saga diverted attention from Lisbon.
2) The short period of campaigning by the YES camp up in the run up to the vote.
3) The threat by the IFA to encourage its members to vote NO if Ireland did not exercise its NO veto.
4) Accusations by the Fianna Fail that the other oppostion parties were not campaigning enthusiastically enough.
5) Failure to dispell "lies" peddled about loss of control over tax and military neutrality from the NO camp.
It is quite clear therefore that the YES camp will launched a re-run.
Le Monde also had a similar story about the influence of the murdoch press in the no campaign. I dont agree with their analysis. Their main story on the non vote has 105 posts on its blog to date more than half of which are backing the Irish vote. and congratulating us.
There's also some real anger being expressed as we are the only country blocking lisbon.